Politics, bye-elections, so unpredictable but this seat should never have fallen to the Lib Dem politics and, with the state of the Lib Dem Party, if the Conservative’s lose this bye-election it will be 100% the fault of David Cameron, his management of the party, modernisation strategy and a complete failure to take his grassroots members with him, it is the grassroots workers who turn our and win election, particularly bye-elections but he appears to treat them with contempt.
Even if the Conservative Party wins the Eastleigh Bye-Election it will be close and it is seemingly a miracle that the Lib Dem’s can put up such a good show in a basically Conservative constituency with the party in such chaos and a performance in the coalition nothing short of dismal and amateurish.
So what can the Conservative Party learn from this Lib Dem showing and the 10 point lead Labour has in the polls, what in fact are the mistakes Cameron is making can he really grasp the politics of what he really needs to do?
The Conservative Party didn’t lose the 1997 election because they were sleazy or nasty, they lost it because of Black Wednesday when they lost financial credibility through the ERM crisis and from that day for 10 years they were between 10 and at times 30 points behind.
This position was totally undeserved because although going into the ERM was stupid and the pain can be summed up in 15% interest rates the Conservative Party turned around the economy in double-quick time and by the time of the 1997 election was able to present the country with a growing economy described by the IMF as the Golden Economy, a pension system which was over subscribed and the envy of the world, rising employment and reducing National Debt, in most elections this would have guaranteed the Conservative’s victory but Labour won by 100 seats
After the 1997 general election the whole Conservative hierarchy went into a political purdah terrified that the party could retain, it’s supposed, nasty tag and was paralysed for 10 years and is still a big part of Cameron’s so-called modernisation policy for the party.
So lesson (1) for David Cameron is to not try to cure an ailment that doesn’t exist, we should have been shouting from the roof tops about our numerous achievements in government, we had little to be ashamed of and so much to be very proud of.
Lesson (2) for David Cameron is to understand why the Labour Party is 10 point ahead in the polls even after the disaster they left behind, to remember bankrupt economy, bankrupt pensions system, rising unemployment, public sector totally out of control and the worlds most complicated tax system, in essence 13 years of almost total failure.
So how is it they are doing so well, even without policies, simply the Labour Party has not gone into purdah, it has taken the view that what is done is done, we are where we are, they have essentially wiped the past with only very limited referrals back to it, they have moved forward on a positive note able to take advantage of any difficult time the government was inevitably going to have both in the business of government and within the coalition, any comments from the government benches that the Labour Party created the mess are ignored.
Whilst it is difficult to understand the shortness of the Labour Party rehabilitation with the public, so far, their strategy appears to have worked but a word of warning, every time Labour has been in power it has left a mess!
Lesson (3) for Cameron is that you can’t treat the grassroot members or their views with contempt, the Conservative Party used to have an enormously powerful election machine but any election machine is powered by footsoldiers (members) and their numbers are dwindling fast, they will work for the Conservative philosophy but the average member doesn’t feel that the Conservative Party has a Conservative leader and only Cameron can put that right!
And, yes leadership is a problem, the last great Prime Minister with a set of beliefs, principles and signposts firmly set was Margaret Thatcher but since then all parties have been led by a set of political Gad Flies with no real beliefs or guiding principles other than a wish to be re-elected and we are of course talking about Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Ed Miliband and the worst of all Nick Clegg although all Nick Clegg dreams of is another hung parliament!
This leadership problem is worldwide and I remember once being told you needed some years on you to be Prime Minister and to have previously held one of the big offices of state whereas Cameron, Osborne, Miliband, Balls, Clegg, Obama have barely learned about life let alone be able to run one of the biggest companies in the world, Great Britain Plc or USA Plc!
The Conservative grassroots are not after Cameron, they want him to be successful so much but they also know to be a success he has to be a real visionary Conservative Prime Minister, by paddling in fictitious Middle-of-the-Road-ism he is losing support and at the same time allowing UKIP to grow, this seat only went Lib Dem because of UKIP, UKIP can lose him this Bye-Election and the next general election but it is in Cameron’s hands!
Anyway, that is probably it but everyone should be interested in politics because it is life so have your say and comment below
BREAKING NEWS – Some opinion polls are now showing UKIP on between 18% and 23% at the Eastleigh Bye-Election, David Cameron needs to be a very worried man because if UKIP are riding that high he will stand no chance of winning this Bye-Election or the general election in 2015, 60-80% of the voters who support UKIP are lost Conservative supporters, time to wake up!