The politics of war, the good intentions, the planned outcomes but do they match the actual outcomes, whether it be Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and now the possibility of Syria, I don’t think in hindsight we will be able to say that the outcome was what we wanted or in fact is better than we had before!
Can you imagine the whole politics of the Middle East, the storehouse of the Wests energy needs being in the control of Islamic governments and in turn in control of the Wests energy needs, a very real threat to every western government!
Let us look at the outcomes, in Iraq they are still fighting each other an enemy of Iran and ripe for takeover, Afghanistan will believe me return to the Taliban within years of our withdrawal and in Libya again they are fighting amongst themselves and elections will probably produce an Islamic State, all could easily, along with Iran become a major threat to Israel and that could lead to disaster.
A military intervention in Syria stands a very good chance of producing an Islamic State but then you ask, what can we do, we say President Bashar al-Assad must stop all military action and make way for another government and that gentlemen is neive, if Assad stops all action he will be dead, don’t kid yourself the opposition forces are just as ruthless, Assad has no choice!
I will say it again, President Bashar al-Assad has no choice and unless we give him a choice he cannot stop, Assad may not be a very nice man but he is a known quantity posing no threat to the west but neither are the opposition angels and if Assad is overthrown Syria will end up with an Islamic State.
The opposition is giving President Bashar al-Assad no choice and if the world plumps for military intervention it will be bloody and it is almost certain we will not like the result with a probable total loss of influence over the new government and a very dangerous Middle East to boot, we must be very careful what we commit to but we are fast heading into an arena we won’t be able to control.
What the West has to do is offer Assad a way out with full protection and immunity from prosecution for him and his family, if done in an imaginative way we may then, with the help of Russia, be able to control what happens after Assad, military intervention is not the answer!